The Sagicor Super Cup 2011 is down to the final stage with TeleBarbados Carlton up against BNB St. Catherine in what promises to be an exciting battle for the championship. Here is some food for thought. 

The CAB Radar & Rating Model has looked at a few possible outcomes using known data, but I am fully aware of the glorious uncertainties of the game called cricket. In addition, there will be several qualitative variables that can play out on any day in many different fashions: the availability of the best players on either side; the match preparation levels of the players; the conditions of play, including the weather; and of course, the toss. 
 

In the six games, Carlton won the toss three times and asked the opponents to have first knock. The Black Rock men registered a 5-wickets victory against Pickwick, and won by 7 wickets against Spartan, while the other game was abandoned with Maple on 151 for 5 after 22 overs. The match against UWI was completely washed out, but Carlton comfortably chased a huge 292 for victory against the Barbados Youth to win by 3 wickets, and sailed past Empire’s 237 in the semi-finals, winning by a similar margin. Both opponents chose to bat first, which was precisely what Carlton would have preferred. In this final, this strategy would hardly change. 
 

Similarly, St. Catherine has sent their opponents in on each of the five occasions in which they had won the toss: winning four times - chasing 212 (against YMPC), 153 (against LIME), 120 (against Banks), and 89 (against Pickwick). However, in the first series against Empire, a modest score of 221 at Bank Hall proved to be too much for the Bayfield men. So, St. Catherine likes to chase as well. 
 

Intuitively, one would rush to judgement in saying that, yes, St. Catherine may be a good chaser, but only if the totals are small and manageable - perhaps scores under 220. That’s fine, but to their credit, one must also agree that their bowling appears competent in ensuring that the position is kept within a target range that is reachable. Incidentally, St. Catherine Masters’s team also uses the same ploy. 
 

This is precisely the kind of intelligence Carlton must be aware of, and must be able to capitalise on. For sure, if St. Catherine wins the toss, Carlton is going to bat first. Similarly, the trend also suggests that Carlton would chose to field first, as well. Question: Is this a weakness of these two sides? 
 

The toss appears to be absolutely crucial in this encounter and could be the one deciding factor outside of genuinely outstanding performances from the bat and the ball. 
 

Recent History – Carlton versus St. Catherine 

In the last three encounters, Carlton has won two matches (in 2008 and 2009) and St. Catherine one (2010). However, Carlton in unbeaten so far this season, while St. Catherine was beaten by Empire by 70 runs in the first series, their only defeat to date. Nevertheless, the Bayfield men fought back admirably by winning their last five games with relative ease, including their semi-final match against ESA Fields Pickwick.

St. Catherine is not normally a high-scoring side, but the in-form Kenroy Williams with two unbeaten half centuries (85 versus BDFSP and 60 versus Banks), along with Derick Bishop, Patrick Browne and Dale Maynard are all capable of batting the ‘Phillipians” to victory on any given day. The question is: how big a total would they have to get? 
 

The answer lies in whether or not Carlton’s batsmen can live up to their potential of being able to score over 220 runs, particularly so, given their not-so-strong bowling attack. Advisedly, Carlton should be looking to bat first on this occasion, although, none of the batsmen have been consistent during the preliminary rounds. This is a haunting dilemma for Carlton.  
 

Dale Richards seem to be coming good at the right time after a blistering 66 against the losing semi-finalist Empire at Yorkshire. Along with a Carlo Morris, Kyle Mayers, Richard Greaves, Adrian Caddle and, may be, the veteran Shirley Clarke, Richards will have to ensure that Carlton could bat St. Catherine out of this semi-final game.
 

St. Catherine trumps Carlton in this department, as the Bayfield men have been able so far to contain their opponents to a run rate of fewer than four runs per over. This is precisely the reason why they enjoy batting last with the expectation of having a manageable target to reach. Skipper Kenroy Williams with his off-spin and Derick Bishop’s left-arm spin (both under 3 runs per over) have been consistently economical for the St. Catherine side and now share 22 wickets between them. The medium pace of Ulric Batson (economy rate of 4.51 runs per over) and the off spin of Stefan Gooding (4.51) have worked wonders for the ‘Phillipians’, both sharing 14 wickets between them, as well. 

 

Carlton’s Skipper, Khalid Springer, has paid a high price for his seven wickets (31.57 apiece) and carries a relatively expensive economy rate of 5.77. The captain should be hoping to improve his bowling stats in this important final, the second in three years for Carlton. Dane Currency has the most wickets (10) for Carlton with a 6 for 40, which kept Empire in check in that last semi-final. Former captain, Marlon Graham is not in his best form with the ball this season and has captured only four wickets at 35.50 apiece, but Adrian Caddle, who can easily be underestimated by his opponents, is Carlton’s most economical bowler (3.36), while his six wickets come at a cost of only 12.33 from 22 overs. 
 

So, there we have it, a good batting side – Carlton - up against a good bowling side – St. Catherine. 
 

My analysis squarely gives the odds in favour of Carlton winning as 5 in 7 and St. Catherine as 2 in 7, if you are a horse racing fun. That is, given the statistics to date, I could only find two possible winning scenarios (of the seven that I identified) for St. Catherine: 
 

If Carlton scores its lowest total of 154/3 (when they beat Spartan), and St. Catherine reaches its highest score of 213/6 (when they beat YMPC), then St. Catherine wins by 59 runs.

If St. Catherine scores its average total this season of 157/7 and then restricts Carlton to its average opponents score of 154/9 to win by three wickets.

 

On the other hand, all the other scenarios I simulated favour the Black Rock men: 

If both teams play to their average performances in 2011, Carlton (224) wins by 67 runs over St. Catherine’s 157.
 

If both teams equal their best scores for the season, then Carlton (293) wins by 80 runs over St. Catherine’ 213.
 

If each team produces its best score while the opponent only manages its average total.

Carlton – 293 and St. Catherine 157: Carlton wins by 136 runs.

St. Catherine 213 and Carlton 224: Carlton wins by 11 runs.

5.  If Carlton registers its average score (224) and restricts St. Catherine to

the average score of all its previous opponents this season (223), then Carlton wins again. 

This is all historical data and if it looks too good to be true, then it probably is! The reality is – it’s the ‘Performance on the day’ that counts. 

Carlton Club Images